Whilst I saw the cyclic downturn/countertrend coming for the USD.....
I waited out with mortgage in GBP... whilst it continued to run up... thinking the next chance to get back into a weakening dollar may be a whole lot higher....
so I got back in at 164.12 to GBP only see the downleg re-emerge and pulll back to 159.9 so far..
... the failing was loss of patience and chasing a market because of the primary trend.
Now I will sit out the pullback on the basis... on the expectation that the primary trend will reassert , but the opportunity to re-enter lower down was forfeited.. and I am in an effective draw down period at the moment....
The lesson is:
- patience in your opinion
- caution in counterprimary trend trading
- it is not easy to outperform a long run hold position in direction of the primary trend
- Markets do not go straight up forever, patience..again
- monitor other trades effected ie USD SGD and Gold trades
I should have cut my short dollar tradeds at the point of counter tip as dollar reasserted.
My view must always be reflected in my open trades....
....look for correlated trades GBPEUR if risk fear re-asserts re-assess positione effected ie. Gold was also advancing on dollar weakness hence correction here.....
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