Executions on stops

This chart a 30 min Cable chart shows Entries and exits

for the day.

The up arrows, are the buys and down are sells.

Most of the sells were from 0730 to 0830 this morning level 1.6680 - 1.6725

The Break out on Cable

I have shown, the 4 hourly

chart, with the entry levels.

GBP JPY/CHF/EUR

Intra day Candles look toppy, I expect a drop back into the range.

Also GBP does not look strong relative to other Major Currencies.

Strength relative to USD only in my view.

Here are some charts relative to the other Currencies.

Monday for now looks less likely to be a BO day.

Sunday Evening Cable analysis

It appears that Up is the likely direction for

the BO when it comes.

Here is the 2hr chart of GBPUSD with the Intra range lows highlighted.

Bowl pattern of range lows.

whole pattern is a kind of Cup and handle formation if you like that sort of thing.

SBM July Chart...

The key level for a rethink on the

SBM July chart is 408.4

given the steep descent the rebound has crossed the 50% level....

Cable biding time before BO

Hi,

I expected a BO this week passed, another downleg ensued into the range.

I bought well, closely near the bottom of the range which lead to good results.

At 1.6238 and unloaded in and around 1.6380 -1.6400.

Of the return this yielded, I returned 25% on Friday pre-emptively trying to chase
the BO that did not materialise on Friday.

I have a feeling Monday may be it but have felt almost as convinced before although
this is the highest degree so far.

SoyBean Meal July has rebounded I have kept losing short position as I believe it is very close to
its secondary peak given the extent of its move.

The Daily version of Cable

Strong reversal of deep low leaves final candle with long low end wick but Green and close near high..

This was inline with expectations that stated that the today would see early weakness, followed by late recovery.

added to position at 1.625/1.63 area now in profit at close around 1.645

Fed speaks tomorrow so I expect any move to occur tomorrow possibly during or just post speech usually around 1500 GMT I believe.

Given increased confidence on strong intraday rally off lows, where could extra orders be triggered?

Confidence Test

its taken some confidence in my GBPUSD pattern,

The down leg swung to a low 1.60266 which was on the low side of expectations.

Having added further to the position at 1.635 , the best handling methodolgy is to place stops and look away.

Here is an image of the Intraday hourly chart.

Fortunately Sterling re-emerged at the end of the day now at 1.645

Crude also Rallied against my short after so many down days.. stood ground against draw down..

Ditto SoyBean Meal.

USD pushing toward big resistance areas ahead of pivotal Wednesday FOMC meeting.

I predict the FOMC meeting this Wednesday will turn out a shocker for the US Dollar regardless of who sais what..

GBP to BO upside Wed/Thur

SoyBean meal July.. very Profitable

This commodity had largest vertical bull blow off so I got in just post peak thankfully,... I believe this has a long way down to fall..

Heavily Short from 408 level and beyond 2 dyas and we are at 376, and the fall remains precipitous, following an explosive top out...

Sell commodities Gold & Crude will work two (I am short the Crude as well).

Abrupt S&P500 fall right on schedule...

...The return of Fear has been predicted.

The possible Retracement could be 40% plus over the upleg.

Still time for shorts, The chart shows a number of my Entries triggered at various levels today.

It also shows my Stops and possible profit Locks some way off!

Click to enlarge...

Discipline & some orders

In my view the GBP has not yet broken out. however it is a highly advanced pattern.

I had a long GBPUSD, but as I still expect a retracement, I closed this and pegged a buy stop point below current action to get a better fill.

The risk is that I miss the BO. Previously I have always biased to be in and ruined Risk reward ratio on drawdown.

I have decided where market action has not completed I will rather miss a few BO trades and rather nail the ones that behave as expected.

I have also placed Short stop entry orders on the S&P as detailed above below 899.9

Blunder on Platform

I placed a Market order (GBPUSD) over the Friday got filled at 1900 on Sunday on the Saxo platform at a shocking fill spread was enormous..

Costly little mistakes have cost about £2000, so far awareness of platform has been hard learnt..

Cable last chance Mon/Tues for best Entry?....

I believe the next day or so will provide the best entry for a BO in Cable around 1.6250 - 1.6350

Before North of 1.6666 is exceeded and possibly beyond in quiet quick succession.

Pattern fail point is 1.62000 stop just below this, limit buy in the above range target minimum 1.6600. Suggest 2/3rds lockin before take out of last high at 1.6663 say 1.6599

Trail stop on the rest.

trades Buy Limit at Bar top and stop below..

graph to follow..

But Cable looks best... for build out to a BO

Chart to follow, limit and stop orders placed..

GBPJPY - No Quitting the Gibber Jabber ...

My previous GBPJPY posts on T2W saw a nice BO (Break Out)...

see below with charts..

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/forex-discussion/57692-bo-time-again-gbp-yen-2.html#post715124

I am back watching this pair..

Copper Final

Here is final T2Win post and chart:

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/metals/63092-copper-set-up.html#post803092

good gains but oversized trades...

I ran up to 83% of account on margin used... on soybean meal short, S&P 500 short and GBPUSD short term short size apart some good decision making.

charts and detail to follow, reigned back margin to 60% but still too high... need profits to bolster account level and smaller sizing... smoother less volatile ride for the long run better.. for consistency and even temprament.

USD...NZDJPY

USD continues its weak path.. EUR also weakening to GBP.

Missed an Income Generator trade with a HVF in as well had placed a number of below market orders which were un triggered target attained planned oal as entered at te 63 level.

Level of entry set was 61.41 only traded as low 61.44 did net got triggered.

Interesting from target perspective exceeded the RH1 63.32 just reaching 63.38.

USD

Concerned USD may push forward with its strength do I  get out or revert to long term view....1.5963 at present approaching a level where it stood awhile....

Lessons to be learned...

Whilst  I saw the cyclic downturn/countertrend coming for the USD.....

I waited out with mortgage in GBP... whilst it continued to run up... thinking the next chance to get back into a weakening dollar may be a whole lot higher....

so I got back in at 164.12 to GBP only see the downleg re-emerge and pulll back to 159.9 so far..

... the failing was loss of patience and chasing a market because of the primary trend.

Now I will sit out the pullback on the basis... on the expectation that the primary trend will reassert , but the opportunity to re-enter lower down was forfeited.. and I am in an effective draw down period at the moment....

The lesson is:

1.  patience in your opinion
   
2. caution in counterprimary trend trading
3. it is not easy to outperform a long run hold position in direction of the primary trend
4. Markets do not go straight up forever, patience..again
5. monitor other trades effected ie USD SGD and Gold trades

I should have cut my short dollar tradeds at the point of counter tip as dollar reasserted.

My view must always be reflected in my open trades....

....look for correlated trades GBPEUR if risk fear re-asserts re-assess positione effected ie. Gold was also advancing on dollar weakness hence correction here.....

USD reasserts..

Greetings... the USD is pulling back to the 1.619 level to GBP as part of a pullback expected.

I feel Gold is near a High for a downleg but also part of a large continuation in my view...

I feel I am more suited to methodical well thought out position trades  over quick ones, it allows me to retain discipline and planning...

I am looking at a countertrend Soy Bean Meal Short which has shot up ... dangerous but it has gone very far on a long upside with out a break called by Gann guys whoe were right about the upside run...

peak for coffee....

....expect Gold to cool to currently $981?

...Forex Mortgage

traded out of GBP back into USD at 164.12 missed most of the lift on the day and USD fairly extended..

Felt I did not wish to be on the wrong side of the trend... after countercycle pull back never came...

....In the end there was the demise of the Dollar...

Dollar has been weak across all currencies...

I believe devaluation is there unstated plan for dealing with their debt and reinstating some level of defecit balance, do not expect this to be stated anywhere, by an US official...

Expect occasional upward spikes to prevent the notion of 'one way' bet short...

This implies small size or/and small size shorts..