hays

the latest move on hays following through to target pity...

Short Margin...

...so I analysed but did not place Buy stops on HaysRH3 Ledge resistance..

see chart for missed BO.

GBPCHF

2hr chart moving forward nicely..

GBPCHF

Got Bumped into GBP CHF.

Shares Ftse100/250 more climbing

I HAVE FOUND A number of FTSE100 & 250 shares that look like they may all breakout in someway or another.

I have entereed a Lot of CFD orders in the system.

Liberty, Dairy Crest Group, Johnston Press Grp, Scottish & Southern Energy, Gold all look due to Breakout at various points

soon and not so soon.

This points to a larger share run and Commodity run.?

DCG.....

Evening star for Dairy Crest on poss RH3.

Missed RL3 on this BO..AAL

Anglo am..

The down leg never occurred, simultaneously the FTSE had its 9th day up in a row..?

Dairy Crest Group to be watched..

Will need to see expected RL2 holds on DCG and the buy on the upturn and have buy stop at rh3

Liberty

I feel that Liberty may be picked up just above or possibly just below the 400 p level on its RH3 low pt.

After a Fib assessmentv 395 - 397 feels best if Fib's have something to offer.

P&F suggests an 840 target, autotrends has a band from 800 - 840

On the Log P&F I get a first Target range from 590 - 650 (off of RH2 upleg)and then a cluster from 930 through to 1100 (off of RH1 upleg).

Chart to follow.

EURUSD pre-emptive BO

Anglo set up hurts...

I began shorting anglo on the expected Downleg from RH3 to an expected RL3 to early.

There are the threats of a takeout by Xstrata still about. Trying to call a top on a long BO opportunity was overconfidence and costly, bringing me down from £44K to £23 K as the primary failing in that drawdown.

Expensive mistake.

As the pattern shows it actually took out RH2 and is an imperfect pattern in much the same way as the EURUSD pattern did too, thother contributor too the above losses. I have spent to much time playing the small moves in the pattern only for the pattern to be 'imperfect' and not conform.

I should just stand back and play the BO trade ie pick up at RL3 bottom and RH2 stop Buys..

missed early BO on EURUSD

Hi ,

With out much of aDOWNLEG THE eurusd BROKE UP, WITHOUT ME.

Maybe the clue was the down day after RH3 that did not take out RH3 Candles Low and looked like mini-triangle, I should have placed an RH3 entry at 141.66 top RH3 now 142.35

Will probably run further and take out 14340 (RH1). This points too dollar weakness tomorrow.

No great Downleg materialised, as I awaited further confirmation for RH3 ie. a fallaway the BO was missed, higly non-standard though.

Lessons in Patience

The short Soybean Meal August Trade is an exercise in patience.

The ride on shorts is bumpy positions should be retained once confirmed.

I believe I exited ZMQ9 at 340's.

After minor retracements its has continued short to the 317's level.

lets see the action in the pic attached.

I was already short from the 390 level. following through to these levels would have been very rewarding.

Also money management to avoid excessive draw downs so that I can take longer term outlook.

Target for Anglo 2145 conservative

P&F targets and Support & Resistance level set range at 2150 - 2350 for Anglo.

Take profit at 21.45

Watching Anglo American & EURUSD

EURUSD and Anglo along side who has recieved overtures from Xstrata, I expect it to lead to a takeover/merger at 19.50 - 22.50

Both setting up.

Lessons again

My intention to be both short commodities and the S&P has been poorly executed.

As every countertrend saw me suffer drawdown and entries at low levels saw me contiually cut and square off positions.

Smaller size and greater long term commitment to my view, combined with better entries say against a countertrend upswing will recitfy this situation.

I have decided to PlayOil for down to the $51 level where I believe it will attain and exceed.

So I have comitted to hold this short till either stopped or target is attained.

Leesson - Chasing markets..

Learnt this one before but slipped up.

I had shorted GBPJPY at around the 157 level on a Head and shoulders and risk aversion to USD/JPY theme just emerging. See Chart

Then on Sunday Night I saw a Forex Income generator Long on GBPJPY which was direct divergence.

So I sold out to play it safe for a very small loss.

GBPJPY then opened at 153 in the mroning and 400 pts were lost.

Chart alongside shows trades...

Then I chased the trade short and picked the bottom : - ( , the thinking being medium term it will push further down, it reversed as it had probably overextended on one day..

This chart on Grainger shows how BO targeting can work off previous S&R levels.

The Pattern RH1 - RH3 was perfect.

Tight stop between Rh3 and Rl3 just 17p in movement on a £1,7K stop loss.

would allow an effective £100 per pt.

allowing 87 to 110 would give £2300 return if just 10% retained for the full stretch to 176 was left a further £760 could be attained.

giving a £3K return on a £1,7K return. at 25% retained a further £19,00 giving £4,200 return on £1,700 risk 2.5 times odd.

I will watch to see if we get the same again.

The Lessons Learnt from this BO.

Despite the trade being profitable a few lesson can be taken:

1. It was valuable to have profit locks as BO reversed quickly
2. Always be aware for descretional exits, BO occurred at 0730 - 0800 in the morning Begining GMT session and close to Quarter end/ Triple witching
3. Break Out will happen when ready and watching for a few weeks requires patience and concentration
4. It is easy to pre-empt false BO's, no this is the BO... no next one is no...etc?
5. Some money was made inside the range on successive evening star Candle followed by bottoming bar. exploit these to feel in the motion of the move
6. Failure for GBP to look strong vs other Currencies JPY/EUR/CHF belied impending delay's in pattern look for confirmation relatives
7. Do not get too active on short term intraday patterns as dfar as getting involved
8. use small size on everything but the key level take outs
9. Next time have a greater percent locked in for exits
10. Remember Copper trade that got entered without stops on extreme day
11. Keep cancelling and resetting entry orders where pattern dictates and new lines of significance emerge

The BO..

....Occurred very close to Qtly triple witching, always bare awareness of your position relative to close out..